Commodity Preços Quotes amp Charte de Commodity - Free TradingCharts é a principal fonte de futuros livres e preços de commodities cotações e gráficos e outras informações de mercado, incluindo futuros e notícias sobre commodities. TradingCharts rastreia muitos commodities e indicadores financeiros, disponibilizando a informação sob a forma de gráficos de commodities gratuitos e cotações intraday de commodities. Uma riqueza de recursos informativos está disponível para aqueles envolvidos nos mercados de futuros de commodities. Desfrute de acesso rápido aos gráficos de preços de commodities e cotações em que você está mais interessado usando o menu de cartas personalizadas. Certifique-se de verificar o Online Commodity Traders Forum. Um lugar de encontro amigável onde comerciantes de commodities e corretores de commodities se reúnem para discutir estratégias de negociação e compartilhar experiências. Você também vai descobrir um grande diretório de corretores de commodities. Um glossário on-line de terminologia de futuros e um breve curso educacional sobre commodities trading. QuotMy Menuquot Fast AccessUniversity F orex F utures negociação Forex amp Futures University Traders Educação Artigo do Mês Bem-vindo ao nosso conhecimento é Power Resource Guide, fornecendo livre futuros negociação informações para você na estrada para o comércio de sucesso hoje negociação FX Forex Futures mercados Com informações oferecidas pela University for Forex trading educação em futuros fx métodos de negociação, sistemas de negociação e metodologias comerciante que levam a uma negociação bem sucedida. Financial Trading artigos amp Tidbits - escrito pelo especialista do mercado Joe Ross. 1. Medir Opinião de Mercado e Sentiment Olá Joe Que sobre relatórios de Sentiment de Mercado Às vezes estes relatórios concordam e às vezes discordam. Qual é a sua opinião sobre os relatórios de sentimento Embora esses relatórios sejam científicos, nada sobre os mercados de negociação pode ser medido com precisão científica. Commodity futuros amperes mercado forex dispositivos de medição simplesmente não são muito precisos. Não há uma finalidade prática para medir um mercado com precisão ea maioria das medições do mercado é, na melhor das hipóteses, apenas uma estimativa aproximada. Quando medimos os mercados de futuros, estamos basicamente medindo o comportamento humano, e o comportamento humano não é facilmente medido. Quando se trata de prever as condições do mercado financeiro ou o sentimento do mercado, não faz sentido lutar por extrema precisão. Commodities futuros e preços de mercado forex são baseados na opinião humana. Ao medir o comportamento humano no mercado, o erro estatístico é substancial, geralmente correndo com resultados de mais ou menos 5. Uma estimativa da opinião do comerciante ou do investidor é apenas uma suposição porque nem todos têm exatamente a mesma opinião e porque é difícil Medir com precisão uma opinião. As variações nestes 2 fatores são indicadas no erro estatístico 8220standard.8221 O mais melhor um relatório do sentimento do mercado das matérias-primas pode oferecer é uma indicação da probabilidade baseada em algumas suposições importantes. De fato, um relatório de sentimentos supõe que o universo que está sendo medido é realmente real. Outra suposição é que a medição da opinião é confiável. Eu vi este fenômeno em ação. Quando eu era dono de uma fazenda e misturado com outros fazendeiros em várias reuniões, era óbvio que os fazendeiros nunca disseram ao agente do condado suas verdadeiras intenções de plantio. Ainda assim, o departamento de agricultura publica um relatório sobre 8220Intenções de Plantio.8221 Os agricultores que pretendiam plantar soja diziam ao agente que iam plantar milho (e talvez também comercializassem seu sistema de comércio de milho. A suposição de que o universo era real foi muitas vezes satisfeita porque o agente realmente pesquisou fazendeiros. A segunda suposição de que a opinião era confiável não era real porque, por várias razões alguns agricultores podem ter mentido para o agente agrícola. Para medir uma opinião de mercado. E apenas porque uma opinião ou intenção é declarada, doesn8217t significa que a pessoa dando ele vai agir sobre o que eles dizem. Essas questões têm uma incidência direta sobre forex, futuros, mercado de ações e commodity trading. Como os comerciantes forex, A menos que estejamos negociando (com 100 técnicas ou análise de gráfico forex), também estamos tentando avaliar a opinião atual, e antecipar o que os preços do forex vai fazer com base em cima, para baixo ou lado De acordo com essa opinião de orientação do mercado. A ação do preço de mercado de Forex é um reflexo do que os seres humanos fazem eo que vêem e pensam que outros estão fazendo, e muitos comerciantes baseiam suas decisões na reação potencial de outros comerciantes. Assim, no coração da negociação é a idéia de que a opinião do mercado é medido com precisão pela mercadoria atual ou preço das ações. Seu acreditado por peritos do mercado forex tudo conhecido sobre um mercado, que pode afetar os preços globais do forex, já é maioritariamente construído no forex ou preço de futuros, e tudo o que não se sabe não se reflete na ação do preço de futuros. Também é preciso dizer que ao ver o preço do forex atual ou condições de mercado mais recentes, os comerciantes de forex reagem de certas maneiras previsíveis. Para a maior parte, quando os preços de forex caem, os comerciantes de forex tendem a se tornar temerosos e vender suas posições para proteger seu capital restante, e comprar novamente quando vêem os preços subir para satisfazer a sua ganância. Naturalmente, o oposto é verdadeiro dos comerciantes de Forex que tendem a ser vendedores curtos. Mas o medo do aumento dos preços por vendedores de curto e medo de queda dos preços por aqueles que preferem ser longo não é o principal ingrediente medo no mercado. O maior medo parece ser o de perder um movimento. Esse medo está diretamente ligado à ganância. Um princípio importante de toda a teoria de mercado é fx Os comerciantes de Forex e os investidores reagem a certas condições de mercado de forma consistente e previsível. O famoso trader W. D. Gann visualizou essas reações sob a forma de ângulos geométricos, formas e padrões. Elliott os viu como ondas (agora conhecidas como Elliott-Waves), e Charles Dow as viu como uma inter-relação entre os setores industrial, de transporte e de utilidade dos mercados. No entanto, há boas razões para duvidar se os preços de mercado refletem verdadeiramente as opiniões de quem participa. Há também dúvidas sobre se os participantes no mercado reagem de forma consistente às situações do mercado. Parece que o comportamento humano é muito difícil de medir e as pessoas (incluindo os comerciantes) não agem consistentemente em suas opiniões, atitudes e crenças. Provou ser muito difícil medir o comportamento humano, e as pessoas não respondem com regularidade a situações, mesmo idênticas. Quando nós supomos que os comerciantes dos mercados de futuros reagirão consistentemente às condições de mercado de forex específicas e assim formam os padrões de preço de gráfico de forex delineados em textos de análise técnicos clássicos comerciante, estamos colocando o cavalo de comércio antes do carro. Estamos então assumindo que os seres humanos sempre agirão da mesma maneira para certas situações e condições. No entanto, a verdade é que o comerciante de forex não agir consistentemente. Em vez disso, eles reagem consistentemente. Forex gráficos padrões são um reflexo de tudo o que é conhecido no mercado forex. O que vemos quando trocamos de padrões gráficos é a forma como os comerciantes e investidores estrangeiros reagem às condições do mercado. As opiniões e as apresentações populares dos corretores das opções binárias podem ser encontradas aqui. Nossas estimativas do que os comerciantes futuros e os investidores farão são meramente as melhores suposições, e potencialmente imprecisas. O sentiment do mercado tenta estimar como os comerciantes de FX agirão. É aí que, em certa medida, perde seu valor. É muito mais preciso estimar como as pessoas vão reagir ao que acontece no mercado Forex. Então, quando você está tentando antecipar o que os comerciantes do mercado forex vai fazer, tenha em mente que as reações comerciante não são necessariamente visto com a precisão de formas geométricas, elliott contagens de onda, as relações do setor de mercado ou um índice de sentimento do mercado. Não existe tal coisa como certeza comercial. Quando eu encontrar a pessoa que pode me dizer com total exatidão e consistência onde o próximo carrapato ou pip será, eu certamente ter encontrado o Santo Graal de Forex Trading e forex dia de negociação 2. Getting in Step com o Forex amp Futures Market Early No dia de negociação forex, como parte de sua preparação diária comerciante (você tem uma preparação diária, don8217t você) é útil para praticar um pouco para obter um quotfeelquot para o que você pode fazer e como você pode comércio forex hoje. Uma maneira de fazê-lo é fazer algumas pequenas transações, usando apenas uma pequena porcentagem de seu tamanho normal de negociação e seus corretores de forex conta equity. Colocar em uma pequena posição de comércio ajuda a focar. Depois de ter entrado no mercado, veja como o comércio de commodities ou forex está funcionando. Se você usar indicadores técnicos olhar para ver se eles estão de acordo com a sua previsão da ação de futuros, estoque ou preço do forex. Se você antecipou um bom forex ou commodities comércio configuração a partir do indicador de análise técnica, isso realmente aconteceu Foi bom o suficiente para que você confia novamente em Forex comerciantes que tentam 8220trade na zona, 8221 tentar obter a sensação da ação de preço . Eles querem estar em sintonia com os altos e baixos do movimento de preços de FX. Inscrever-se para o boletim de notícias livre Como fazer o dinheiro que troca o Ezine do mercado financeiro Ezine no que diz respeito a todas as matérias do dinheiro including empréstimos do ampère do Real Estate Clique-aqui agora para começar quotHow para fazer o Moneyquot Click-Above para juntar-se ao boletim de notícias Ezine ou clique - Dias você apenas não pode ser tão bom quanto você está em outros dias. Quando você não está em sintonia com o mercado fx, deve ser um sinal para você que 8220this8221 isn8217t seu dia. Se não é comercial, não. Cada comerciante terá quedas de negociação, períodos em que os comércios apenas don8217t parecem trabalhar para fora. Durante desaceleração do comerciante, simplesmente não faz muito sentido para continuar tentando. Você não está apto para o comércio, então don8217t. Você não estará negociando no seu melhor. Clique agora para Dica de negociação do dia. Profissionais commodity futuros e traders FX sugerem ficar de lado quando você ou seus negócios não estão tendo um bom dia de negociação. Em última análise, é uma boa idéia fazer uma pausa na negociação, para tentar novamente mais tarde. O intervalo pode ser de horas ou dias. Quando estou em uma queda, eu tiro uma semana inteira. Eu não começarei a operar novamente até que eu veja os comércios e os mercados seguirem o meu caminho. 3. Don8217t negar a realidade Se você quiser ser um bem sucedido forex ou comerciante de futuros, você deve se certificar de que você não negar a realidade em qualquer fase de sua negociação. Você não pode negar perdas, direção de preço, erros cometidos, subcapitalização ou toda uma série de coisas que você prefere não pensar. Muitos comerciantes pensam que a melhor maneira de lidar com idéias desagradáveis, eventos ou falhas de caráter pessoal é fechar os olhos e fingir que não existem. Let8217s enfrentá-lo, FX e negociação de commodities pode ser difícil, às vezes muito difícil e é essencial que você se concentrar na realidade. A negação leva seu foco longe da mesma coisa que você precisa para se concentrar na ação dos preços, independentemente do tempo. Sua mente deve ser clara para que você possa olhar para o mercado e ver o que realmente está lá. A maneira como aprendi a lidar com a negação era simplesmente escrever e confrontar todas as idéias possíveis que eu tinha problemas para aceitar. Alguns pensamentos que eu poderia corrigir e outros que eu só tinha que aceitar. Mas enfrentar a verdade do que e quem você é é a única maneira de lidar com a negação. Você tem que perceber que a maior parte das coisas que você pode mudar estão em si mesmo. Outras coisas que você só tem que aceitar. Você tem que aceitar a realidade do deslizamento, por exemplo. Você tem que perceber que os indicadores muitas vezes dão sinais falsos e que não há mágica média móvel nem há um oscilador mágico. Você tem que perceber que alguns comércios vencedores são apenas comércios sorte e não tinha nada a ver com sua habilidade como um comerciante. Da mesma forma, você também vai experimentar a má sorte de ter preços fazer um movimento repentino e inesperado contra você. Em vez de desperdiçar seu tempo em negação, concentre suas energias mentais em melhorar a si mesmo e melhorar suas habilidades de negociação. Trabalhe em melhorar suas habilidades para observar. Perceba que você tem que sobreviver aos mercados, a fim de beneficiar da experiência dos mercados. No entanto, o problema se manifesta de duas maneiras: 1. As condições do mercado mudaram e você não tem. 2. Você não está mais fazendo o que fez quando estava ganhando. Você tem drifted. Você não é consistente. O primeiro aspecto do problema é devido à má observação. O mercado mudou e você não mudou com ele. A má observação resulta de uma variedade de problemas menores, mas muito importantes. Você se casou com um mercado, ou um comércio de forex. Você pode ter permitido o seu ego para obter o melhor de você e você não é mais humilde. I8217ve nomeado apenas um casal aqui. Eu desafio você a pensar sobre as muitas coisas que podem distraí-lo de ver quando as condições de mercado mudaram. Faça uma lista dessas coisas e confronte-as. O segundo aspecto do problema decorre da inconsistência do operador. Aqui novamente, você deve fazer uma lista dessas coisas que fazem com que você seja inconsistente. Talvez eu tenha sido um bom comerciante ao mesmo tempo, mas as condições do mercado mudaram e talvez não consiga manter minha reputação acima. Esta é uma questão que todos os comerciantes enfrentam em algum momento: manter sua reputação. Quando se faz grandes lucros de negociação, é tentador dizer aos vizinhos e amigos o quão bem você está fazendo. Seu grande quando você está fazendo os grandes lucros, mas manter as aparências é muitas vezes a queda do mesmo comerciante mais astuto. Outra vez, negar sua necessidade para a fama e a glória, ou fingir que você pode manter uma reputação irreal, usará acima de sua energia psicológica e interferirá com sua abilidade de concentrar. Os lucros enormes tendem a ir ao humble, assim que tentam não construir acima de sua reputação. Admita que você terá dificuldade em manter as aparências e apenas parar de fazê-lo. Um fato que um comerciante wrestles com continuamente é a noção, quotTrading não é um trabalho legítimo. Muitos comerciantes lutam com a legitimidade do comércio. Alguns comerciantes acham que eles podem simplesmente lembrar-se, quotTrading fornece liquidez e ajuda a controlar os preços. Outros comerciantes, no entanto, acho que isso não é bom o suficiente e precisa encontrar mais significado em suas atividades de negociação diária. Por exemplo, eles podem se concentrar em como o comércio ajuda a fornecer para a sua família, ou pode planejar doar alguns de seus lucros para instituições de caridade que eles vêem como pessoalmente valioso. O ponto é, não negar a possível verdade para essas idéias. Você será melhor fora reconhecendo e trabalhando através deles, e então apenas movendo-se sobre. Negar que eles existem, por outro lado, usará tempo e energia. Crenças inaceitáveis tendem a mentir na parte traseira de sua mente. Eles permanecem lá, à espreita, e quando você está vulnerável, eles podem poderosamente influenciar sua perspectiva. Portanto, reconhecer idéias inaceitáveis, e uma vez que você admitir a possível validade de tais idéias, você vai neutralizar a sua influência potencial. Isso liberará recursos psicológicos limitados, permitindo que você concentre toda a sua energia na negociação rentável e consistentemente bem. 4. Negociação perdas Hey Joe Perdas são um grande problema para mim. Eu sei que I8217m deve aprender a amá-los.8221 Como você lida com esses eventos desencorajadores Depois de uma série de comércios altamente bem-sucedidos, um comerciante não deve se desanimar por perdas sucessivas normais e corretagem contagem equidade, mas aprender a esperar deles. Observe que eu não disse, 8220aprendê-lo a amar-lhes8221 Alright let8217s dizem que você apenas fêz exame de um rebatimento considerável e do drawdown da equidade no mercado do forex. Você se sente culpado e zangado. Você deseja que não aconteceu. Você gostaria que fosse embora. Você diz a si mesmo, 8220 Isso é parte do preço que você paga para se tornar um comerciante rentável e bem sucedido. É este pensamento direito É este comércio é tudo sobre Você realmente precisa entrar em um comércio esperando para perder Don8217t você acredita que Embora você vê Tais declarações estabelecidas como verdade, acreditando que não vai ajudá-lo a se tornar um comerciante bem sucedido. Se você pensar para si mesmo, eu só perdi um monte de dinheiro e pensar que você estará em breve em apuros. Se você acha, não posso simplesmente escrevê-lo, 8221 então treinar-se a pensar nisso como um revés menor e seguir em frente. Eu sei que é difícil, mas isso é o que você tem que fazer. Como um comerciante do mercado forex, você tem que pensar no longo prazo. Você tem que acreditar que se você trabalhar esperto o suficiente, e fazer o bom fx trades sob as condições de mercado certo, youll saem à frente. No entanto, não há nenhuma maneira que esse tipo de pensamento vem fácil. É preciso uma quantidade enorme de disciplina e auto-controle para lidar com as perdas comerciais de uma forma positiva. Porquê Porque perdas hurt8212they hurt não importa quanto tempo you8217ve sido comercial. Se você tiver problemas para perder, não estará sozinho. Todos os comerciantes sofrem perdas. Como um comerciante, as perdas que você toma pode ser um fato da vida, mas que doesnt torná-los fáceis de manusear, e você certamente don8217t tem que aprender a amá-los. Como um comerciante você deve controlar a quantidade de perdas, mantendo-os pequenos, e passeio através do draw-down até outra seqüência de comércios vencedora começa. No entanto, você pode se sentir culpado por ter uma perda. Por que temos esse sentimento de culpa em relação às perdas? Uma parte desse sentimento de culpa decorre de um forte desejo humano de se proteger. Então, quando você perde dinheiro, mesmo como um comerciante profissional e ativo, dói quando você pensa nas coisas para as quais você poderia ter usado o dinheiro que perdeu. Você provavelmente foi ensinado a pensar dessa maneira. Os valores sociais e culturais de proteger-se foram programados em você em uma idade adiantada. Quando você perde dinheiro em um comércio, você se sente culpado e talvez até um pouco em pânico. É bastante natural e compreensível, mas quem diz que os comerciantes são naturais ou mesmo que eles agem de forma compreensível Como um comerciante profissional ativo, você tem que mudar o seu pensamento sobre as perdas. Você tem que resistir a suas inclinações naturais e aprender que as perdas são uma parte de cada negócio. Lojas de varejo levam as perdas de quebra, roubo de lojas e roubo de funcionários. As companhias de seguros perdem perdas de créditos falsos. As empresas de tabaco são processadas. As empresas químicas fazem lotes ruins e têm que jogá-los fora. Os agricultores perdem as colheitas. Ranchers perder gado. Não consigo pensar em um negócio que não experimenta perdas. Então o que você faz sobre a forma como você foi programado desde a infância Você deve confrontar seus sentimentos e lidar com eles. Reconheça que você está tendo culpa. Entenda por que você está tendo esses sentimentos. Para cada um de nós, a razão subjacente pode diferir em espécie e intensidade. Ele ajuda a admitir o fato de que pode haver conseqüências adversas de assumir riscos com o seu dinheiro arduamente ganho, e tenha em mente que os sentimentos de culpa associada com a perda de dinheiro que você não pode perder é ainda pior. Ninguém tem qualquer negócio comercial com o dinheiro que não pode dar ao luxo de perder. Ao negociar com o dinheiro que foi especificamente reservado para negociação, e você e sua família (se você tiver um) todos concordam que este é o dinheiro que você pode dispensar no caso de uma perda que tira muito da pressão de perder . Evitar ativamente perdas através de gerenciamento de risco inteligente também ajuda a aliviar o estresse e reduzir a probabilidade de uma perda catastrófica. Quando você sabe que você fez tudo o que pode para minimizar o risco e você se sentir certo de que você pode sobreviver a um grande sucesso em seu cenário de conta, você será capaz de lidar com mais facilmente as perdas. O risco, o dinheiro e a gerência de comércio eficazes vão uma maneira longa para construir sua confiança e aliviar o stress das perdas do comércio. Depois de ter tomado cuidado de risco, dinheiro e questões de gestão de comércio, você também deve garantir que você tenha capital de negociação suficiente. Uma das maneiras mais certas de acabar uma falha nos mercados de forex ou outros mercados de futuros é ir para eles sub-capitalizados. A maior porcentagem de falhas de negócios de todos os tipos são de sub capitalização. A U. S. Small Business Association afirma que apenas 1 em 1.500 startups pequenas empresas é bem sucedida no final de 5 anos. A maioria dessas falhas de negócios vêm de empresas que estão subcapitalizadas. Não é diferente para o negócio de forex e outros futuros negociação. Você tem tanta chance de ter sucesso no negócio comercial começando com uma pequena conta 5.000 como você faz de ganhar o Estado Lottery.8221 Independentemente do nível que você começa com você deve cortar perdas comerciais imediatamente. Quanto mais rápido sua negociação leva uma perda, maior a probabilidade de você eventualmente ser rentável. Aprendendo a tomar as perdas rapidamente você terá sucesso mais cedo. Perdas de negociação são uma despesa comercial. Em um sentido, as perdas comerciais são parte do custo de fazer negócios. Em outro sentido, o custo das perdas é parte do que você paga para aprender o negócio de negociação de futuros de commodities. Perdas são um fato da vida em uma vida de comerciantes. As perdas não são facilmente aceites. Mas você certamente não precisa aprender a amá-los. 5. Trading Panics e Fast Markets Hey Joe Com toda a conversa de um possível pânico, você acha que o governo vai intervir para melhorar um acidente Quando um pânico negociação está agarrando o mercado, pergunte-se o que o governo vai fazer para restaurar a sanidade e proteger Seus melhores interesses financeiros. Durante os mercados de ações entra em pânico, o Federal Reserve injeta liquidez instantânea, recomprando títulos do governo e baixando as taxas de juros. Em outubro de 1987, os futuros de T-Bond subiram 10.000 por contrato, quando o Dow caiu 508 pontos em um dia, o que foi considerado um colapso gigantesco do mercado baseado no DJIA baixo durante esse período. Houve momentos em que nenhuma ação da NYSE foi negociada, porque não havia compradores. Demorou um comerciante de 4 dias para chegar até Charles Schwab para confirmar um comércio. O telefone estava em remarcação automática de 7 AM a 7 PM, durante esse período de 4 dias. Demorou 14 dias para confirmar o comércio É minha firme convicção com base em provas na minha posse que o governo realmente tem uma Plunge Protection Team, uma entidade offshore que entra no mercado de ações em momentos em que os preços estão caindo muito rápido. Esta entidade compra o que quer que seja, onde e quando necessário para manter o mercado de ações de um acidente pura e simples. Quando os preços dos grãos aumentam acentuadamente devido a notícias sobre danos causados por inundações, é no melhor interesse do governo permitir aumentos adicionais de preços Considere o efeito inflacionário do Índice CRB fortemente ponderado de grãos. Quando os preços dos grãos aumentam devido a problemas crescentes, os agricultores sentem ressentimento contra os comerciantes de Chicago, que podem lucrar com o infortúnio dos agricultores. O governo pode emitir relatórios falsos para diminuir os preços dos grãos. As inundações de 1993 afetaram 70 do milho e 50 dos estados produtores de soja, porém os rendimentos foram superiores aos níveis de produção de 1991, com exceção de três estados. Como isso poderia ser Se os números do governo foram alterados para manter a inflação abaixo Você aposta que eles eram. Preste atenção para o mercado de grãos do governo, em alta, em fins de 1993, para impulsionar os mercados de grãos substancialmente mais altos quando surjam condições de inundações ou secas. Ordem de uma Consulta de Negociação ou Consulta de Website por Going-Here 6. Hey Joe Eu quero aprender como o comércio, mas I8217m ter um conflito. Está negociando futuros de jogos de azar Negociação de futuros é jogar apenas quando você trocá-los sem o pleno conhecimento do que você está fazendo. Há uma boa medida de auto-conhecimento necessário para escolher o bom curso a seguir se você quiser se tornar um comerciante. Inclusive tem sido postulado que muitos pequenos comerciantes nos mercados de forex e futuros, sem saber, secretamente querem perder. Saltam com grandes esperanças, mas sentindo-se vagamente culpados. Culpado por jogar com o dinheiro da família, culpado por tentar conseguir algo para nada, ou culpado por mergulhar sem realmente ter feito muita pesquisa ou análise. Então eles se punem, por estes ou outros pecados, vendendo-se, desmoralizados, em uma perda. Um comerciante está apostando quando heshe comércios da ignorância. O jogador faz suas decisões comerciais sobre sentimentos intestinais, esperanças, sonhos de ficar rico rapidamente, dicas do corretor, informações de amigos e da compreensão e uso indevidos de indicadores, osciladores, médias móveis e sistemas mecânicos de negociação. Em geral, ele está procurando uma maneira de atalho ter que realmente aprender o que está acontecendo. Infelizmente, a maioria dos novos comerciantes que tentam negociar futuros caem nesta categoria. No entanto, a verdadeira negociação é na verdade especulação (gestão de risco). O especulador está disposto a aceitar o risco de flutuação de preços em troca da maior alavancagem que vem com esse risco na esperança de ganhar um maior lucro. O verdadeiro especulador toma suas decisões de negociação com base no conhecimento obtido a partir de informações sobre o comportamento da tendência subjacente, sazonalidade, histórico e atual do mercado, análise de gráficos técnicos, fundamentos de commodities, dinâmica do mercado de investimento e conhecimento daqueles que o comercializam. 7. Hey Joe Que sobre a adição de novas posições no dia de negociação Um comerciante do dia deve aprender a pressionar o mercado e adicionar contratos na confirmação de tendência crucial intra dias preços, movendo todas as paradas de proteção para quebrar mesmo com contratos adicionais. Quando um mercado de touro faz novas meias-altas do dia, em vez de negociar um um tamanho da unidade do preço, comércio dois ou mais unidades do preço com um batente mais apertado. Ou o mercado explode rentável, ou o comércio é saído imediatamente. Ao construir posições de comércio de mercado de touro, mova as ordens de stop-loss protetora até o ponto de equilíbrio à medida que novas posições comerciais são adicionadas. A melhor localização para a sua ordem de stop-loss de protecção está abaixo de uma reacção anterior baixa, swing-low, trendline, ou área de resistência psicológica preço. E tenha em mente que você não está adicionando a uma posição existente. Você está correto quando diz que adiciona 8220new8221 posições comerciais. Eles são novas posições de negociação e devem ser gerenciados como tal, lembrando que cada 8220new8221 posição é colocada em que muito mais perto do final do movimento e, portanto, acarreta maior risco de negociação de perda. 8. Hey Joe Você acha que há alguma verdade em que os comerciantes individuais são afetados pelo humor geral do mercado financeiro e forex Eu acredito que há muita verdade nessa declaração. Eu também acredito que você deve aprender a se separar dos movimentos do mercado financeiro. Eu li algo há muito tempo e salvei. Eu não me lembro quem a escreveu, mas aqui está: 8220A negociação a curto prazo deve estar no topo da lista das ocupações mais imprevisíveis e excitantes do nosso planeta. À medida que o conjunto dos atores do mercado chega ao mercado a alturas crescentes e baixos aterradores, a consciência coletiva da multidão se eleva para a euforia e cai em desespero em concerto com o movimento de preços. Se a multidão experimenta uma emoção cumulativa que varia de leve otimismo, ganância e euforia a uma menor ansiedade, então o medo e o pânico explícito são óbvios que todos, exceto os mais robóticos dos comerciantes, passam por sentimentos pessoais que refletem a experiência da multidão. 8220Its comum encontrar os comerciantes que ficam em bom humor quando o mercado tende para cima, e se sentir abatido e deprimido quando o mercado declina. Nos últimos anos, isso pode ter tido mais significado, porque muitos comerciantes se recusaram a vender curto que perdeu a ação do mercado quando caiu. Outra razão para o 8216up é bom, para baixo é bad8217 emoção gangorra encontra-se no fato lamentável de que quando os mercados caem, muitos comerciantes novatos ignorar seus pontos stop-loss. Um mercado em queda queda valor. A desvantagem desta síndrome, no entanto, é mais do que prejudicial para a sua riqueza. Anexar suas emoções aos giros do mercado pode influenciar negativamente seu relacionamento com seus amados e amigos. 8220Como você ficar desconectado e desapegado de humores do mercado Primeiro, afirmamos o óbvio: adquirir o conhecimento ea disciplina necessária para fazer sábias opções comerciais. Em segundo lugar, refinar as habilidades de gerenciamento de dinheiro é um absoluto 8216must.8217 Estabelecer um plano geral, big-picture para o seu negócio comercial, para gyrations mercado diário não parece tão assustador. SEMPRE planejar seu comércio e comércio de seu plano. Em caso de dúvida, saia. Se você não gosta de vender curto, quando o mercado passa, 8217 ter lucros e ficar na margem até que as condições melhorar. Afinal, quando você está em dinheiro, você não terá nenhuma ligação emocional ligada à atividade de mercado. Uma vez que você aprenda a desconectar do humor do mercado, você vai se livrar de limitações emocionais que podem ter dificultado suas decisões comerciais. E isso deve ter um impacto positivo em seu sucesso de negociação. 8221 Detalhes sobre Trader Consultoria ou Fazer um inquérito Website por Going-aqui 9. Hey Joe Eu sei que sou um over-trader. Eu acho que eu simplesmente não entendo porquê Em sua gestão geral, onde o excesso de negociação se enquadra em excesso se encaixa dentro sob o tópico de gerenciamento de risco. Estamos falando de controle de risco.8221 Primeiro, eu diria que a gestão de risco é uma das coisas mais importantes que você realmente precisa entender. Em segundo lugar, você deve começar a sub-comércio, sub-comércio, sub-comércio. Tudo o que você acha que sua posição de comércio deve ser, cortá-lo pelo menos na metade. Minha experiência com os comerciantes novatos é que o comércio de 3 a 5 vezes demais. Além de spreads, eles estão tomando riscos de 5 a 10 por cento em um comércio quando eles devem estar tomando 1 a 2 por cento de riscos. O princípio da preservação do capital implica que, antes de considerar qualquer potencial envolvimento do mercado, o risco deve ser a principal preocupação. Você deve considerar a recompensa potencial, apenas no contexto do risco potencial. O risco deve se tornar o fator determinante na tomada de uma posição. Esse é o verdadeiro significado da análise do risco-benefício. Corretamente aplicado, ele define o padrão para avaliar não só se a tomar um comércio em tudo, mas também em que grau. A preservação do capital 8212refusa-se a perder8212 torna-se a base para a gestão inteligente do dinheiro. 10. Há ordem nos mercados Existem formações de gráficos definíveis que formam os blocos básicos de ação de preço Sim, eu acredito que existem, e estou feliz em compartilhá-los com você. Eu descobri-los há muitos anos, ao longo do tempo e através do uso de estatísticas. Três padrões básicos surgiram que podem ser vistos em qualquer período de tempo em qualquer gráfico que é capaz de mostrar-lhe os valores altos e baixos dos preços. Estou interessado na interpretação desses padrões, que se aplicam ao movimento de preços. Chamo essa descoberta 8220The Law of Charts, 8221 e está disponível para os leitores desta publicação sem nenhum custo simplesmente visitando nosso site. Você pode descobrir a Lei de Gráficos em qualquer tipo de gráfico comumente usado na análise de mercado hoje: a lei pode ser visto em gráficos de barras, gráficos de velas e gráficos de pontos e figuras. A Lei dos Gráficos Os três padrões básicos que compõem a Lei dos Gráficos são os seguintes: Alguns destes podem ser ainda subdivididos da seguinte forma: Durante anos os comerciantes têm olhado para gráficos de preços e se perguntou o que eles significavam. Sometimes viewing a price chart is similar to looking at the stars and trying to figure out which ones to connect to show you the formation known as 8220Taurus, the bull.8221 All too often chart formations exist only in the eye of the beholder. At what point does a 8220pennant8221 formation become a pennant What exactly constitutes a 8220coil,8221 and when is it a coil Exactly how would you define a 8220head and shoulders8221 formation When can you call a 8220megaphone8221 a megaphone MORE IMPORTANTLY, what do any of these formations tell you The discovery of The Law of Charts was quite accidental8212something on the order of Newton discovering the Law of Gravity when an apple fell on his head. As with most discoveries, The Law of Charts was discovered through simple observation8212studying charts for many years until the formations just popped out and revealed themselves. The details of the Law of Charts are seen in our e-book entitled, of all things, 8220The Law of Charts.8221 To see how this trader law is applied in regular trading, we are happy to share with you our weekly journal in which we show actual application of the law. The weekly journal, which we call 8220Chart Scan8482,8221 is also available at no charge. The Meaning of the Formations 1-2-3s occur only at the end of trends and swings. They are an indication of a change in trend. They take place when the directional momentum of a trend is diminishing. Exactly the way to identify 1-2-3 formations is detailed in our e-book. You will also find in the e-book how to register to receive our Chart scan journal. Consolidations and the ability to identify them are of utmost importance because prices tend to move sideways far more than they tend to trend. Ledges occur only when values are trending. They constitute a pause in the trend. The pause may be due to profit taking or, more usually, are reflective of uncertainty in the market. The traders e-book explains more fully how to deal with so called Ledges. Ledges are consolidation areas consisting of no less than four occurrences of price value and no more than ten occurrences of price value, having two matching highs and two matching lows. Congestion areas are sideways consolidations of price value and reflect periods of accumulation and distribution. You might say that they indicate a market that is essentially at fair value with no significant changes in supply or demand. Congestion consists of from 11 to 20 occurrences of price value prior to a breakout. Trading ranges are extended consolidations of price value. They consist of sideways movement lasting twenty-one bars or more. Interestingly, statistics show that breakouts from trading ranges occur most often on price value occurrences from twenty-one to twenty-nine. Furthermore, the narrower the trading range becomes, the more explosive tends to be the breakout, and the wider the trading range becomes, the less explosive will be any breakout from the sideways action. Trading ranges also reflect markets that are at fair value with little change in supply or demand. Ross hooks always occur as the result of profit taking. A ross-hook is defined as the first failure of prices to continue in the direction they were previously moving following the breakout of a 1-2-3 formation, the breakout of any of the consolidation patterns mentioned above, or the breakout of a previous Ross hook. Each one of the basic trade formations is able to be defined. The specific definitions are available in the previously mentioned e-book, 8220The Law of Charts.8221 Since the basic formations occur in a variety of ways when seen on a chart depicting actual price action, we want to help you fully understand how to apply the law. There is considerably more to the Law of Charts than can possibly be described in this overview article. You can obtain a clear, thorough understanding of how we trade using The Law of Charts through the Chart Scan, which is sent out by E-mail each week. We invite you to join us in a better understanding of what you see on a price chart. Joe Ross8217 Trading Educators is dedicated to helping serious traders to become better traders. Our staff and branch offices consist of real traders trading real markets. Trading Educators is involved in day trading and position trading in a variety of markets including futures, equities, and forex. In addition, our offices regularly trade futures spreads and options on futures. 11. Hey Joe If I get all my forex buy and sell signals to work properly, I should come out a winner, right Wrong The perennial questions are, 8220Should I buy Should I sell8221 All too many traders focus their efforts on identifying buy and sell signals. In fact, that8217s what most trading books consist of8212some way to find buy and sell signals. Trading systems are usually all about 8220where to get in.8221 The research and analysis traders do is geared towards reaching the goal of getting that magic 8220base line8221 directive to guide their actions. How ignorant can you be Any successful, experienced trader will tell you that although properly identifying buysell signals is important, it8217s not the key to being successful. Instead, the way you manage each trade is what will determine your success. Traders who take the baseline approach tend to believe that the success of their trading activity is dependent on following the right buysell signals at the right time. Clearly, it8217s important that a trader be able to understand the process of generating signals and to use the methods involved. Realistically though, almost any financial trader can find a way to generate signals (whether using technical methods already out there, coming up with their own system, or using their platform8217s automated signal generation tools). Any successful, experienced commodity futures and forex trader will tell you your trade doesn8217t begin and end with a buy or sell. There8217s a trade management process involved. For each commodity futures trade you make, you8217re making a group of decisions. The way you manage and time those decisions is what will determine the success of your trade. Let8217 say 2 traders get the same trade signal at the same time and act on it. One8217s trade may result in profits while the other8217s results in losses. How is this possible It can occur because each trader made a different combination of decisions throughout the course of the trade. The decisions may include scaling in andor out of the trade, using or not using trailing stop-loss orders, setting or not setting profit price target objectives prior to entry, patience or lack thereof, etc. The forex and commodities futures traders who made the most effective overall combination of trading decisions will have the better trade results in the end. Of course, there are time when pure chance, gives the better result to the worst trader. It8217s very important to regard trading as a process, and to understand that as a trader your efforts need to be focused on the activity of trading itself, as opposed to getting a quick base line answer. Because there are many things to take into consideration in making your trades successful, it8217s essential that you educate and train yourself in all the different areas. Learn how to develop better trading plans and to trade a sound and proven important trading technique and technical indicator, and learn how to apply what you have developed to the overall process of executing a trade vs the original impulse to enter or stay-out of a trade to the control of your thought processes and emotions in making and managing that trade. 12. Hey Joe I8217m a long-term trader. Any trading advice for me Note the yearly ranges for the commodities you trade. What is this yearly high and low, are they higher highs, lows and closes compared to last year Does the close confirm price action What is the long term trend How does this years compare to last three years average range Should next year have greater volatility than this year How much based in dollars was the commodities price move from the annual lowest low to highest high price How much did you take out of that range What should next years high and low be for the commodities you trade based on the yearly trend analysis These questions define the yearly long term vertical bars, use the monthly priced bars to answer them. Use weekly price bars to answer major trend questions for monthly highs and lows. 13. Hey Joe At the trading seminar you said it8217s a good idea to study military campaigns if you want to be a good trader. Would you elaborate on this a little Grant and Napoleon had one ability that separated them from other generals, the ability to maneuver troops and supplies to their most effective placements under rapidly changing circumstances. Traders should learn how to manage their funds, rework stop placements, and change their position size with changing market conditions. Conducting warfare and commodity trading have many common factors. All modern warfare is derived from the spear and shield, attack and defend, offense and defense. For trading markets, offense is trade entry and defense is the protective stop. Day trading is like guerrilla warfare, which was first used in Europe during the early 1800s when Napoleon placed his brother on the throne of Spain. Attack rapidly then retreat. Value of Persistence: In the Battle of the Wilderness, Grant let the Southerners know one thing, he would never give up and would fight them under the harshest of conditions. After the battle was over, instead of retreating back to Washington to rest, as some past cowardly Northern generals had done, Grant moved south and stopped Lee from sending reinforcements to Atlanta, which fell to Sherman. The Civil War was won from the Battle of the Wilderness, which Grant is still incorrectly thought to have lost. Grant broke the South psychologically after the Battle of the Wilderness. The stock market or futures trader is a successful human being for the courageous act of trying to become a success trader, regardless of his brokers account equity statement. Churchill said, quotNever give up. Never, never, never give up. quot That statement defines persistence and commitment. There are many trading systems that are profitable, yet there is only one way to correctly analyze price action. Those lessons are contained by regular practice reading charts and working out what you see there. Dont give up and you will find them on the charts. 14. Hey Joe I know you must have been a truly committed trader when you began. How do I get myself to be in control Statistics and society may predict, but you alone determine whether you will succeed or fail. You alone are in control take responsibility for your performance and your life. There are always tremendous opportunities in the markets. It is not what happens it is what you do with what happens that makes the difference between profit and loss. Most traders move from trading method to trading method, over time, until they find one that suits them8230 one that is comfortable to run, and tests well first by trade back-testing, and then by real-time trade testing. Some traders never stop looking for the 8220right8221 way to trade. That is a problem. There are many ways to trade that can generate nice profits over time. To settle on a right way for you to trade: 8226 First, you have to believe in the process which leads to the generation of your entry signals. Does that process make sense to you Maybe you8217re a visual sort of person and you are drawn to Candlestick charting. Take the time to understand why the patters mean 8220reversal8221 and not just accept the 8220picture8221. Go deep. Choose a guru to follow. Maybe you learn best from mentoring. Choose wisely. 8226 Second, method you decide to go with, back-test it. In today8217s modern world of software, there8217s no excuse not to run all the back data you can through your method and see what the results would have been. 8226 Third, THINK about the process you are choosing and why it8217s right for you. THINK about the results you get from your back-testing and your real-time testing of your system. 8226 Fourth, BE A MACHINE (DON8217T THINK) when you are trading your method. This is why I am a huge proponent of mental training for traders. Unless you can control yourself, you can never control your trading. In order to control yourself and your emotions, you have to believe totally in the way you trade. Do the work. Think. Then don8217t think. 15. Hey Joe If you had to come up with a set of steps that would bring trading success, what would those be. I guess from time to time I would say this somewhat differently, but what comes to mind is as follows: Here are five steps to becoming a successful trader 1. Focus on trading vehicles, strategies, and time horizons that suit your personality. You need to be comfortable. 2. Identify non-random price behavior, wherever you can find it. 3. Absolutely convince yourself that what you have found is statistically valid. 4. Set up trading rules. 5. Follow the rules, but don8217t be afraid to break them if the don8217t work. In a nutshell, it all comes down to: a. Do your own thing (independence) b. And do the right thing (discipline). 16. Hey Joe What about adding new positions when day trading Day traders should learn to press the market and add contracts at crucial trend confirmation intra day prices, moving all protective stops to break even with additional contracts. When a bull market makes new half day highs, instead of trading a one price unit size, trade two or more price units with a tighter stop. Either the market profitably explodes, or the trade is exited immediately. Trader Consulting Information, or Make a Website Inquiry by Going-here When building bullish trading positions, move your protective stop-loss to break even as new positions are added. The location ideal for the protective stops are below a previous reaction low, a trend line, or psychological resistance price. And keep on mind that you are not adding to an existing position. You have it correct when you say adding 8220new8221 positions. They are new positions and must be managed as such, all the while remembering that each 8220new8221 position is put on that much closer to the end of the move and therefore carries increased risk. 17. What exactly is a hedger, and what is a hedge A hedger could be someone who grows and sells hedges, but in this case we are not talking about horticulture, although the idea of growing a hedge as a means of protection lends itself to the concept called 8220hedging8221 in the futures markets. The details of hedging can be somewhat complex but the principle is simple. Hedgers are individuals and firms that make purchases and sales in the futures market solely for the purpose of establishing a known price level 8211 weeks or months in advance 8211for something they later intend to buy or sell in the cash market (such as at a grain elevator or in the bond market). In this way they attempt to protect themselves against the risk of an unfavorable price change in the interim. Or hedgers may use futures to lock in an acceptable margin between their purchase cost and their selling price. Consider this example: A jewelry manufacturer will need to buy additional gold from his supplier in six months. Between now and then, however, he fears the price quotes for gold may increase. That could be a problem because he has already published his catalog for one-year ahead. To lock in the price level at which gold is presently being quoted for delivery in 6-months, he buys a futures contract at a price of say, 350 an ounce. If, 6-months later, the cash market price of gold has risen to say 370, he will have to pay his supplier that amount to acquire gold. However, the extra 20 an ounce cost will be offset by a 20 an ounce profit when the futures contract bought at 350 is sold for 370. In effect, the hedge provided insurance (protection) against an increase in the price of gold. It locked in a net cost of 350, regardless of what happened to the cash market price of gold. Had the price of gold declined instead of risen, he would have incurred a loss on his futures position but this would have been offset by the lower cost of acquiring gold in the cash market. The number and variety of hedging possibilities is practically limitless. A cattle feeder can hedge against a decline in livestock prices and a meat packer or supermarket chain can hedge against an increase in livestock prices. Borrowers can hedge against higher interest rates, and lenders against lower interest rates. Investors can hedge against an overall decline in stock prices, and those who anticipate having money to invest can hedge against an increase in the over-all level of stock prices. The list goes on. Whatever the hedging strategy, the common denominator is that hedgers willingly give up the opportunity to benefit from favorable price changes in order to achieve protection against unfavorable price changes. 18. What8217s the meaning of 8220Position Limits8221 Although the average trader is unlikely to ever approach them, exchanges and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) establish limits on the maximum speculative trade position any one trader can have at one time, in any one forex or futures market contract. The purpose is to prevent one buyer or seller from being able to exert undue influence on the market price in either the establishment or liquidation of positions. Position limits are stated in number of contracts or total units of the commodity. The easiest way to obtain the types of information just discussed is to ask your broker or other advisor to provide you with a copy of the contract specifications for the specific futures contracts you are thinking about trading. Better yet you can obtain the information from the exchange where the contract is traded. Position Limits can dash the hope of even the most ambitious traders. With a certain number of contracts, you then have to report your intentions. Along the lines of Position Limits, are certain limits built into any venture which limit a trader8217s ability to trade large size. It is a common fallacy of most aspiring traders to think that if they could just learn to be successful trading a single contract, just think what they could do with 100 contracts, or 1,000 contracts. Besides becoming reportable, the trader runs smack up against two immutable laws: 8226 The law of diminishing returns 8226 The law of diminishing productivity The larger the trading size of the trader, the fewer markets he can enter without becoming everyone8217s target. When you trade too big, everyone is out to get you. If they catch you going the wrong way on a trade they will make mince-meat out of you. So that trader must stick only with markets that can absorb his size. The more contracts you put on, the more problems you have with fills. It becomes difficult to get all contracts filled at a single price. Instead you find yourself managing a series of prices. No fun at all You are so busy managing one trade, that you can no longer manage other trades. Having to manage a lot of different prices reduces your productive ability. 19. Oversold or overbought markets One way to look at consolidation areas is to try to buy into a market when it is said to be 8220oversold8221 at support, or sell into one that is said to be 8220overbought8221 at resistance. In either case you do this as soon as it begins to move in the opposite direction. Overbought conditions are said to exist when a market has experienced rapid price increases. Intermediate resistance is a price, or clusters of prices, which have formed at price levels not exceeded for several days or weeks. The opposite is true for oversold conditions. They are said to exist when a market has experienced a rapid decrease in prices. Intermediate support is a price, or clusters of prices, which have formed at price levels not violated for several days or weeks. Timing such trades based upon the chart pattern greatly reduces risk and facilitates such a counter trend entry. The minimum price objective for this type of entry is generally about 50 of the price movement from the previous top to the previous bottom. 20. Three components of market timing All market timing has three components: entry into the position with a protective stop, repositioning the protective stop, and exiting the trade when it is completed. Profits may take care of themselves, but losses require money management. These timing components must be built into every successful trading system. Good stop placements, relative to price action, are like fishing for big fish using a light line the right amount of tension is required at all times. Picture it this way: If a fish is given too much fishing line, i. e. too wide a stop placement, he will come towards the boat then explode outward, thus ripping the hook out of his mouth, i. e. taking the trader out of the market. If too much tension is applied, i. e. stop placements too close, the fisherman rips the hook out of the fishs mouth and loses the fish. The trader with too close a stop takes himself out of the market. The wise trader must know how to use stop placements, especially if he fishes at high risk bottoms or tops. 21. Pullback or trend reversal When seasonal pressures favor a trend already underway, a pullback can offer attractive entry opportunities 8211 if you know what to look for. When seasonal influences coincide with an emerging trend, a reciprocal relationship can develop that generates dynamic price movement. Short-term pressures reinforce longer-term trends, and longer-term fundamental change promotes a greater sense of urgency in seasonal pressures. Consider the effect of a seasonal increase in demand when supplies are in structural decline amid a potential shortage. A trend is a series of actions and reactions. When prices move too far too fast in one direction, they tend to pull back 8211 almost like 8220two steps forward, one step back.8221 Not only does this pullback allow the market to correct any imbalance, it also affords lower-risk entry opportunities before the trend reasserts itself. The questions, of course, are how much of a pullback and when is a pullback a reversal instead. Such is the trade-off in buying pullbacks, but general rules of thumb exist to help. Probably the best rule of thumb is to determine whether or not the pullback is nothing more than profit taking. Profit taking will generally not cause more than three price bars of pullback. A trend reversal should be considered whenever there are more than 3 price bars in the pullback. More than 4 price bars gives a very strong indication that the move may be at least temporarily over and that immediate consolidation of some time period is in process. 22. Defined risk Defined risk is something to be quite concerned about. We always want to keep it as small as possible relative to the anticipated reward. Risk can come in unexpected ways. As a rule, you don8217t count on lousy or unreasonable fills. You don8217t count on the market being under fast conditions at the time you enter. You don8217t count on the fact that even though you are trading in a normally liquid market, today is the day when traders are just standing around. You don8217t count on the fact that tick size may be unusually large just when you are entering the market. Perhaps you have a resting stop, and just when prices reach your stop, the market becomes fast or the tick size unusually large. You don8217t count on a huge fund entering the market just at the time prices reach your resting order. It is because there are so many unplanned for items that can exaggerate risk, that we learn to respect the trend. The reward can be surprising, the risk defined. The market contains the knowledge of all the players, therefore it knows more than any one of its players. When a market trends, it does so for a reason. At times, the reason is never fully understood until afterward. Trends usually get underway slowly and then accelerate as they gain momentum. Momentum is potentially as helpful to a trader as a ocean waves are to a surfer. And because momentum is also a function of market psychology, trends can carry to even greater extremes than seem possible, thereby legitimizing the question, 8220How high is high8221 or 8220How low is low8221 It is human emotion that drives markets to extremes. For instance, one definition of an up trend is a series of progressively higher highs and lows on a price chart. By that definition a trend becomes risky when there is penetration of the most recent prominent low. However, that fixed chart point can also help a trader to estimate the depth of corrections, and to identify possible entry points. By understanding the trend you can get a better idea of the amount of your risk exposure. Trading with the trend can place the probabilities in favor of your ultimate success. When it comes to trading with the trend there may be as many ways as there are traders. I prefer to 8220nibble8221 the trend, taking frequent profits as I go and then reentering ifwhen the trend continues. When nibbling the market, I use no indicators of any kind. In a down trend, my trailing exit stop is always 1 tick above the high of the latest price bar. My entries are 1 tick below the latest price bar. If prices gap beyond my entry point I do not enter. Sooner or later every trend breaks down, and not coming to the full realization of that seems to be the undoing of many traders. There is a tendency to hang on much too long. 23. Is it true that selling a market when it is limit up is usually a great strategy This 8220brilliant8221 strategy stems from the idea that selling a market at limit up, may result in the trader gaining two limit moves in his favor while theoretically not losing any money the day of entry. I think is that this is an absurd idea. I don8217t advise this high risk approach as a trading tactic. Keep in mind that most markets that remain limit up on the close, will open sharply higher the next day over 90 of the time. The limit-up sell is recommended only as a partial profit taking measure, not to initiate short positions which may be considered on the next higher open. If ever trapped into a limit up move situation try to buy deferred futures contracts or call options immediately and ask how many contracts there are to buy on the most active futures contract. If there are over 1000 contracts to buy, do not assume the most active futures contract will come off limit to trade the remainder of that day. 24. Rallies and Declines The price relationship and magnitude of price movement, where rallies and declines occur, defines trend. A bull market has a higher high followed by a higher low which should be followed by a higher high the majority of the time. The magnitude of rallies is greater than the correction of declines. Examining the distances between highs and lows allows the lowest risk entries, and forecasts where and when market tops and bottoms should occur for profit taking exits and new position entries. Buying bull market corrections makes good sense, since the next rally should be greater than the decline on which the position was taken. That, in essence is what we are doing with the Traders Trick Entry. Declines should not be lower than the previous price bottom. The same principle applies to day trading. It is the downward corrections in a bull market that quantify the strength of the market. With a chart pattern recognition approach, it is very possible to know where any market will trade days, weeks, or months in advance greater than 78 of the time. Too bad we don8217t know exactly when 25. Detecting the End of a Trend One way to know that a trend is over is as follows: Downtrend: A low is made and then a correction (retracement) follows. If the distance from the low to the high of the correction is greater than the height of the two corrections prior to making the low, you are probably looking at the end of a trend. The highest probability is for prices to now enter a consolidation, since few markets consistently make Vee bottoms. Uptrend: A high is made and then a correction (retracement) follows. If the distance from the high to the low of the correction is greater than the depth of the two corrections prior to making the high, you are probably looking at the end of a trend. The probabilities are now equal for prices to consolidate or for an actual change in trends. Markets make Vee tops more often than they make Vee bottoms. 26. No more than two indicators are the maximum to confirm price action Simplify your approach to technical analysis as much as possible. Emphasize price action analysis, de-emphasize indicator usage, and unless you are in a position to gain lots of information, totally ignore fundamental analysis. No more than two indicators are the maximum to confirm price action. At a trading seminar, at which I spoke, one trader there used 9 technical indicators to trade the futures markets. More than half of the trading seminar was devoted to technical analysis indicators and their usage in trading. Wells Wilder wrote the best book ever written on trade indicators, quotNew Concepts in Commodity Trading Methodsquot and it should be read before oscillator usage or trading seminar attendance. However, keep in mind Mr. Wilder eventually publicly disavowed every indicator except ADX. These days, I do not use Gann, Elliot, Fibonacci, open-interest, or RSI, in my technical analysis. I use mostly mental analysis of buying and selling pressures, as expressed in a series of price bars or chart patterns. If you are going to trade with indicators despite my ranting and raving against them, the best way to trade them is to know what levels they achieve only 15 of the time when at a major top or bottom, and know the percentage of price action and indicator divergence for each market in which you use the indicator. If only 15 of all Stochastic values go above 83 for Treasury Bonds, then upon reaching that value wait for confirming price action to generate a profitable sell signal. Traders may combine indicator values to specific time value tops and bottoms for counter-trend price objectives, but be sure to use non-correlating indicators to do the job. The 15 level is different for each market. Price vs technical analysis divergence is an indicator value created when the market price moves to new higher levels, but the indicator remains below a previous indicator value level relevant to a previous price top. Corn used to have price action and stochastics divergence 80 of the time at bottoms. Knowing the percentage of divergence at tops and bottoms for each commodity makes money. What is the average counter trend price move when the Stochastics rise above 83 for T-Bonds with divergence If you don8217t know, you need to know. Tell you what, it8217s a lot easier learning to read a futures chart and to be stingy in your use of indicators. 27. TRADING THE ROSS HOOK8482 The Ross hook8482 (Rh)8482 is always created as the result of profit-taking. It is defined in the following way: 8226 The first failure of prices to continue in the direction they were going regardless of time frame: Subsequent to the breakout of the 2 point of a 1-2-3 formation subsequent to the breakout of any area of price consolidation containing at least 10 price bars Let8217s look at some examples, including a daily chart: Of course the proper way to trade the Rh8482 is through the use of the Traders Trick Entry8482. The Traders Trick Entry8482 and the Rh8482 go hand in hand and are part and parcel of each other. The 1-2-3 formation is part of the Law of Charts8482, and the Traders Trick Entry8482 is the best way to trade the Rh8482 formation. Both are available to anyone as a free resource at Click-on Law of Charts8482 and also on The Traders Trick Entry8482 (Resources). I give these links here in order to save precious space for the remainder of this trading article. Now let8217s look at a 5-minute chart. Notice that every Rh8482 is a potential 1 point for prices to move in the opposite direction. It is important that you refrain from taking a breakout of the point of the Rh8482. Too often this will place you in the market too late for capturing a sizable portion of each move. There are numerous ways in which you can use the Rh8482. I will present here just one of the methods. Hooks can be combined with indicators if you like. Here we will combine the 1-2-3, the hook and a simple moving average, as one way in which you might trade. The chart shows trending prices underscored by a simple 9 bar moving average of the Opens. To compute the moving average, simply add together the Opening prices of the latest 9 price bars, and divide by 9, and then plot. Here are the rules for trading: First you must define a trend. I did it here by virtue of the violation of the 2 point of a 1-2-3 low formation. We buy one tick above the 2 point as prices move higher (breakout) above the 2 point. For protection, we tail a stop loss one tick below the previous bar8217s value for the moving average. In our example, prices do not move below the previous bar8217s moving average until the price bar marked 8216Out.8217 Let8217s talk briefly about trade management. Assuming you bought 3 contracts upon entry you would cash one contract as soon as you could cover costs and take a small profit. You would then use a trailing stop-loss protecting 50 of your unearned paper profits, and move one stop to break even. If you prefer, move both stops to break even. Once prices move up a sufficient amount to where both stop losses can be placed above break even, trail one stop at 50 and another wherever it feels comfortable. Keep in mind that 8216stop loss8217 means protecting your position against a serious loss of margin (which can easily happen in the forex market in particular). Once the trade is in the clear, stop-loss means protecting your open position equity against loss of profits. The simple trend following method we have shown you is not the 8216be-all to end-all8217 method of following a trend. There is much more to learn about trading trends. You might consider any of the following money management styles: 1. Taking all of your position off at once time at a specific objective of points, ticks, or dollars. 2. Taking 13rd of your position off at a first objective and then the remainder at a second objective. 3. Taking 23rds of your position off at a first objective and the remainder at a second objective. 4. Taking 12 of your position off at a first objective and 12 at a second objective. All of the above methods involve only money management. Futures money-management involves setting monetary, tick, point, or even percentage trade objectives. The following methods involve money management for the first taking of profit at an objective, but then using a trailing stop (trade management) for one or more of the profit taking exits. 5. Taking 13rd of your position off at a first objective and trailing a stop with 23rds of your position. 6. Taking 23rds of your position off at a first objective and trailing a stop for the final 13rd of your position. 7. Taking 12 of your position off at a first objective and trailing a stop for the remaining 12 of your position. I8217m sure by now you can see that there are other management combinations as well. By means of testing you should be able to determine which method works best for your chosen market and time frame. Also realize that no method of management is to be set in stone. Markets change constantly, and you must adapt your trading to the realities of your chosen market. Let me give you an example: At one point in my trading career, when the currencies were heavily traded, a time prior to the creation of the stock indices and US dollar market, I found in trading the Swiss Franc I was able to consistently make 12-ticks on most Traders Trick Entries8482. Trading was during time intervals very easy for me. All I had to do was place my entry stop order in the market, and contingent upon being filled, I would have a Market if Touched order resting 12 ticks beyond my proposed entry point. This method of management worked for almost a year. Then one day I noticed that all I could get was 10 ticks 8211 eventually only 8 ticks, then 6 ticks. This method of management was not worth trading for less than 6 ticks, because at 6 6ticks I had to double my position size to make the same amount as before. When I could no longer get 6 ticks I abandoned the trading method. I moved to other markets and did well in those 8211 mainly the British Pound and the Japanese Yen. However, in those markets I had to trade a bit differently than in the Swiss Franc currency market. It took some time, and I periodically kept an eye on the Swiss franc. Then I noticed that it was once again possible to make 12 ticks. This time that niche lasted only 6 months and it was over, with Swissie moving back to under 6 ticks in a matter of days. In 47 years of trading, I have not found a holy grail of trading. In today8217s markets I find that I have to change and adapt more often than ever before. Changes in today8217s markets are many, and the markets continue to change more rapidly than ever before. New exchanges, new markets (such as Forex Currencies), computers and electronic trading systems, have all changed the markets 8211 especially with them bringing many thousands of new market participants. Since any commodity, futures or forex trading market is comprised of all its participants, the changes have been monumental. No longer are financial markets dominated by professional speculators and commercial interests. Today, much of day trading is heavily populated by newbie traders trying to get rich quick. The single phenomenon of amateur day traders has caused the forex and commodity futures markets they trade in to become chaotic and confusing. You must change. You must adapt. You must coordinate your trading with what is really happening. To that extent, you must trade the Rh intelligently and with common sense. There is nothing magic about Ross hooks. They describe what happens when traders take profits during the course of a trend. There is nothing more to gain than the realization of the simple fact of profit taking and what it looks like on a market bar chart. 28. It8217s our job to trade 8220Forex8221 not 8220Histories8221 Throughout the years I8217ve been trading and writing Ive often written about mind set8212having the right frame of mind for your trading so you become a winner. Ive stated that it is our job to trade quotfutures, quot not quothistories. quot The future is the next bar on your chart. You cant possibly know how it will develop, how fast prices will move, or where it will end up. Since none of us know where the very next tick will be, its impossible to know where the tick after that will be, or the tick after that, etc. All we know at any one time is what were seeing. Interestingly, what were seeing may not be true. If we are day trading, we are not sure that what were seeing is a bad tick, especially if it is not too far astray from the price action. The daily price bar-chart doesnt always tell the truth, either. The open may not be where the first trade took place. The closing price is merely a consensus, and may be quite a bit distant from where the last trade took place. The high price may not have been the high, and the low price may not have been the low. If you dont believe that, then I challenge you to pick up any newspaper and take a look at some of the back months. For example if the futures exchange has reported that a back month they opened at 9755, with a high of 9802, a low of 9760, and a close of 9784. Does that make any sense How can the low be higher than the open How can the close be higher than the high Yet thats the kind of garbage we have to put up with in this business. Now you know the problem with back testing of trades. Back testing and simulated non-real-time testing are based on nothing but lies. Thats why they dont work when you actually put them to the test with real trading using real data. In fact, there are many reasons why back-testing and trade simulations wont work, and I may as well dump them in your lap right here. Because you dont really know where the high or low were, or if the market ever really traded there, you dont know if your simulated stop was taken out or not. If you say you have a trading system in which if you get three up days followed by a down day, the market will be up twelve days from now 82 of the time, then your whole statistical universe may have been based on what is not true. Have you ever watched the cocoa market from the open to the market close You can clearly see it trading at the open, but by the time the market closes, the open will at times be placed opposite the close. That might be fifty or more points away from where you saw it open and trade, and also as born out by a report of time and sales. The way they report cocoa prices is going to give a fit to a lot of candlestick traders. Why Because they are going to see far too many quotdojisquot (openclose), more than are really there. Cocoa is not the only culprit, but historically, it is certainly one of the worst When you see a completed bar on a chart, you have no idea which way prices moved first. You dont know if they moved down first or up first. You dont know whether or not prices opened and then moved to the high, went down to the low, and then traded in the lower half of the price range until the close, at which time prices soared up to the high and closed there. You have no idea of the overlap. Ive seen prices trade from one extreme to the other more than once at each extreme. In any of those instances, your protective stop could have been taken out intra day. You know nothing of the market volatility on any given day, once you see a completed price bar. Were prices ticking their normal, exchange minimum tick, or were they ticking two or three times the minimum every time prices ticked Even if you purchased intra day tick data for your simulation, showing every single tick the market made, you dont know what the volatility was. For instance, you dont know if the SampP was ticking five minimum fluctuations per tick or twenty-five minimum fluctuations per tick, and if it was doing it quickly or slowly. You dont know and you cant know, and anyone who tells you their simulated system works, based on such phony baloney, is a liar. Not knowing how fast the market was means you cant really know what the slippage might have been. The faster the market, the greater the slippage potential. You can sit there and say you would have gotten in at a certain price or that you would have exited at a certain price, but if you dont know the market volatility, and how fast the market was, you do not know enough to say that you would have done such and such. Not knowing how fast the market was, you have no way of knowing how much slippage there would have been on your entry or your exit. Without knowledge of slippage, you cant possibly know the risk. That is also true of volatility. Volatility is made up of range of movement, speed, and tick size. If you dont know the extent of slippage, you will not know the extent of the risk you would have encountered. As if thats not bad enough, you also dont know how thin the market was at the time you would have traded it. If you are position trading, you cant go by the reported daily volume (which is always too late to do you any good), because there is no way to know what the volume was at the time your price would have been hit. So here again you have no idea of what slippage you might have encountered, and once more you would not have known the risk. If you want to spend your money on a commodity or forex trading system based upon the unknown, then you must assume the risk of doing so. Since this is a business of assuming risk, you are entitled to insure prices in any market that you care to. Insurance companies spend a lot of money to make sure that the risks they take are actuarially sound. That is the equivalent of finding good, well-formed, liquid markets to trade in. But any market can become totally chaotic. Markets can become extremely fast, and they can become quite volatile. So even if your system was back-tested in a liquid market, when that market becomes fast andor volatile, your back-tested, simulated system will not be able to cope with it and you will lose. Its like going out to write life insurance on a battle front. If your back-tested, simulated system does factor in some room for fast andor volatile markets, then, when you will be trading in slow, non-volatile markets with the built in factor, you will be utilizing a system that is totally inappropriate for the slow, non-volatile market you are in. The best you can hope for is an quotoptimizedquot system. How can you possibly expect to compete with traders who are acting and reacting to the reality that is at hand at the time Extensive back-testing is for historians, not traders. It is the wrong view of the markets. Your trading must be forward looking without being ridiculous about seeing into the future. If you dont know where the next tick is, how can you possibly know where the next market turning point will be Can you see into the future Perhaps you may like to trade using astrology. as it has been said the famous old-time trader (from the 1920s thru 1950s era) Mr. W. D. Gann (William D Ganns photo to the left) used to trade financial markets successfully in his personal trading of stocks amp commodities. Astrological traders are always trying to peer into the future. In the automobile business they have a saying, quotTheres an ass for every seat. quot Likewise, theres a fool for every fortune teller who claims he can see into the future. You can always go out to your local coven and hire a witch to tell you what beans will do tomorrow. She may even be right from time-to-time. You could always do as one charlatan did and run the biorhythm for each market based on the day it first started to trade. Or, you can cast the markets horoscope based on the same date. With the biorhythm, youll know what time of day the market should be on its highs, and what time of day it will be on its lows. Youll know which day the market will be ecstatic and reach a new high, and which day it will be down in the dumps and make a new low. However, youll find that from time to time the market will reach new lows on the day it was supposed to reach new highs. Well, thats easy enough to explain. You can tell everyone quotWeve had an inversion. Until the market inverts again, the lows will be the highs, and the highs will be the lowsquot 29. Help with Trading Orders One way I can help is to suggest that you pick up a copy of our 4 cassette tape-set and manual called 8220Trading Order Power Strategies .8221 No one has ever produced a product quite like it and many of our trader readers have told us that it was of immense help to them. However, until you get your copy, learn the following: When the market trades above a buy-stop price order, it becomes a market order. The first down tick, after the market order price is activated, determines the highest price a buy stop order may be filled. The rule to remember placing stop-loss orders is this, quotBuy above and sell below. quot Buy-stops are placed above the current market price and sell-stops are placed below the current market price. If a buy-stop price is hit, the order then becomes an at-the-market order to be filled by the pit broker at the best price possible. If an SampP buy stop is hit at 40 and the market trades 40, 45, 50, then 45, the worst fill a trader can receive is a 50, because 45 is the first down tick. The exception to this rule comes under 8220fast market8221 condition, when brokers are not legally held to any prices, or in some New York markets, where pit brokers possess a license to steal. Avoid trading fast markets (fast-market are common in the forex currency markets). A fast market condition exists when extremely volatile price action results from a large amount of orders executed or entered into the pit, almost simultaneously. These market conditions reflect emotional reactions usually in response to the most recent government statistics like crop reports, or unemployment data etc. Whenever you are able, avoid placing trade orders under fast market conditions because of the high probability that you will receive excessive trade slippage. In general use at-the-market orders when its absolutely necessary, unless your commodity or forex trading strategy calls for you to use them. 8220Slippage8221 is the price difference between the stop-loss-order price and the actual fill price this becomes dangerously excessive in fast markets, when brokers have no restrictions on order prices. Ask your futures broker about which government statistics can move the markets, thereby causing extreme price volatility. Try to avoid being in the market during the most critical governmental statistic release, when fast market conditions are likely to occur. It is wise to stay out for about an hour or unless the fast market condition calms down. 8220Triple Witching Day8221 involves the expiration of stock options, index options, and futures contracts. Always know when these days exist and try to avoid trading on these days, which are marked by excessive slippage, poor market fills due to extreme price volatility. All exchanges issue commodity report calendars that will be sent to traders upon request. The New York markets usually have more slippage than Chicago commodity markets, and estimated 100 per trade slippage and commodity broker commission deduction should be used when producing hypothetical testing results from a futures trading system. The New York markets have less restrictions on their floor brokers and customers orders are accepted on a 8220not held responsible8221 basis. Recent reports of 10-cents slippage in a slow silver futures market are not uncommon. For Chicago markets you can use 50 to 75 slippage and commission for testing purposes. 30. Hey Joe, I8217m never sure about trade position reversing. It is scary, isn8217t it The only reason to reverse a daily chart short term position is because the intra-day buying and selling pressures have reversed the short term trend direction. When only intra day trend changes, a reversal is not mandated unless longer-term time and price objectives have been satisfied. If the short term market trend does not change but a technical stop-order is generated, then a trade exit without a reversal is mandated. Powerful trading signals, like an outside daily or weekly vertical bar, a previous five-day resistance top or support bottom violation, demand immediate reversals. The above holds true for any time frame. If you are trading a 3-minute chart, and the trend reverses on the 1-minute price chart, its either time to get out of the market or time to consider reversing your market position. You are correct about reversing being scary. It most certainly is, and I would not suggest doing so unless you 1.) Know what you are doing. 2.) Have the stomach for it, sufficiently quick on your feet. Developing a stomach for trading position reversing takes practice and the self-assuredness that comes with the courage of your personal strength and convictions. Joe Ross is with TradingEducators UF. ORG is our Trademark - All Rights Reserved. This traders article is also copyrighted by Joe Ross amp Reprinted with permission. Some article additions, comments, enhancements and editing has been done by the UF website editor (in particular involving FX forex markets and forex traders), thus the entire traders article text is not all attributable to Mr Joe Ross, though most is contributed by Joe. Click-Below if looking for:Dow Futures About Dow Futures Dow Futures Dow Futures are futures contracts that are based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The DJIA is the index of 30 blue chip stocks that are traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Dow Jones Index is one of the most famous stock indexes in the world and every day if you watch the financial news like that on CNBC, you will hear constantly about the performance of the Dow Index that day. Futures trading is somewhat different than the traditional buy and hold investing. In futures trading, you have to constantly monitor the price. If you don8217t, then you will very soon receive the margin call from your broker. Dow Futures are based on the Dow Jones Index and the value of the Dow futures contract is equal to 10 times the value of the index at a particular point in time. Similarly, if you are bearish on the DJIA, you can go short on Dow Futures contract. Again, each point decline in the DJIA Index will give you 10 for profit. Unlike stocks, you can go short on futures contract without bothering about the uptick rule as none applies on the futures contract. This makes futures trading far superior for speculative purposes as compared to stock trading. Futures trading is risky and if you are a buy and hold type of investor then you should stay away from futures trading. However, if you have an appetite for risk and can monitor the market constantly then you can profit handsomely from futures. Other futures contracts that are popular with traders are the SampP futures contract and crude oil futures contracts. Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures The Dow Jones Industrial Average was created by as a stock index by Charles Dow in 1896. Though only one of several indexes, it remains one of the most important in the investing world after over one-hundred twenty years. The Dow has seen a number of economic changes in the intervening years but has remained an important tool. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures was created to represent the overall health of the industrial sector of the United States8217 economy, but today stands as a benchmark of the economy as a whole. In many ways, the Dow represents how the United States8217 private sector is doing financially as it represents 30 important stocks in the United States chosen by the economic relevance of the companies represented. The Dow works well as a forecast of how the economy will perform in the near future and represents an important trading tool for those on Wall Street. Dow Futures Live Dow Futures Live contracts are one of the more popular index futures with an ever increasing number of beginning traders choosing it as the futures contract of choice. The index futures market is volatile and liquid offering multiple opportunities to execute profitable trades throughout each daily market session. With a five dollar multiplier for each contract on each up or down tick, it8217s possible for traders to profit substantially during Dow futures live trading, executing both long and short trades. However, novice traders will very often experience difficulty and frustration since they don8217t understand the dynamics of the Dow Futures Live . Very few beginners approach the market with an intact trading plan and only a rudimentary knowledge of the financial markets. Futures and Forex brokers are very good at advertising, misleadingly creating the illusion that trading emini contracts are as easy as opening an account with profits miraculously materializing. Unfortunately, this is not the case since a trading system must be in place that utilizes strict trading rules and money management principles to be profitable. For beginning traders, obtaining the knowledge to be successful is difficult since live trading requires the use of real money. Broken and unprofitable trades can quickly add up with account drawdown reducing brokerage balances below minimum account requirements before the new traders have obtained the knowledge necessary to be successful. However, by tapping into the knowledge of emini trading veterans, a new trader can reduce the learning curve to manageable levels giving the beginner the padding needed to become successful. Some traders offer exclusive online trading rooms which allow them to interact with rookie traders as they explain market dynamics. By following along in a Dow emini live trading room, the beginner can quickly learn how the Dow contract trades while learning strategies that fit their personality and risk tolerance. By trading alongside seasoned traders, the beginner will soon be trading with the confidence necessary to succeed in the index futures markets. DJIA Futures With the recent volatility creating instability in people8217s portfolios and peace of mind, I thought we should take a look at how the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) has performed over the past 30 plus years since 1975. In this time frame, the DJIA Futures has ranged from a high return of 38 in 1975 to a (-17) loss in 1977. From 1975 to 2006, there were 23 positive years and 9 negative years. If you were to take a simple average of the yearly returns over this time period, you would come up with an average return of 10.83 Does this mean you will earn a 10.83 yearly return by investing in the DJIA Futures . NO. Some years you will earn that or more while others you will earn less, even lose money. What your overall return will be is not as simple as taking an average. Let me give you an example: Two people invest their money in different financial instruments over 5 years. The first investor earns a flat rate of 8 each year, while the second investor earns 15, (-3), 18, (-12), and 22 over the five years. Both of these investors have earned a simple average of 8 for the 5 years, but do they have the same amount
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